Australia's migration intake has almost halved while the political fight over it keeps growing

Net overseas migration has fallen 45 per cent from its post-COVID peak, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The intake has dropped by more than 250,000 people since September 2023, from a record 555,800 to 301,000. Treasury's budget forecast has it falling further, to 225,000 by 2027/28.

One Nation has spent 2026 polling between 25 and 31 per cent, and has led both major parties in some national polls.

The Committee for Economic Development of Australia published the figures in its State of Migration in Australia report. Its chief executive said the politics had not caught up.

"We've seen political parties place cuts to migration at the centre of their platforms, framing high intake as a driver of housing unaffordability and infrastructure strain," Melinda Cilento said.

"At the moment more people are not arriving, but people are staying longer once they get here, including international students and temporary skilled workers."

The coalition has promised to cap net overseas migration at the number of homes built the previous year.

Pauline Hanson told the National Press Club in June that immigration had the country in a state of crisis and that Australia must be monocultural.

She put migration under Labor at 1.27 million over three years, or more than 423,000 a year.

That is the peak. The current figure is 301,000.

She also said 51 per cent of people living here were born overseas or had migrant parents, against 14 per cent in the United States. Pew Research Centre data puts the American figure at about 30 per cent.

The Newspoll taken July 13 to 16 had One Nation on 30 per cent, level with Labor, whose primary fell three points to its equal lowest since 2022. Roy Morgan's weekly poll, taken July 20 to 26, had One Nation on 25.5 per cent and Labor on 27.5, still below the June highs.

A RedBridge poll of 6,500 voters for the Victorian Trades Hall put One Nation first in Victoria on 27 per cent, one point clear of a Coalition and Labor tied on 26.

The CEDA report found about one in three workers in health care, logistics, professional services and manufacturing were born overseas.

It estimates aged care alone will need 400,000 extra workers by 2050, a gap the domestic workforce cannot fill.

Poor recognition of overseas qualifications is costing about $4 billion a year in foregone wages.

Migrants generally arrive in their prime working years, the report found, and pay more in tax than they use in services.

Cilento said cutting an already-falling intake was not the answer to housing.

"The smarter response is faster skills recognition, streamlined skilled pathways, and continued investment in housing and infrastructure to rebuild public confidence," she said.

"We understand concerns that migration has been too high. The task now is to land on a sustainable number, informed by the evidence, without undermining the skills, experience and workers that businesses and essential services rely on."

The intake has fallen by 250,000 people. The vote for cutting it has gone up.